The oversupply equation
With Canadian operators holding huge shares and having scaled up manufacturing capability over the previous yr resulting from improved home costs and elevated export demand, the mix of expanded manufacturing and potential demand contraction has raised considerations about international oversupply.
“As international producers proceed to scale up whereas main import markets face potential near-term constraints on development, oversupply is more likely to change into a standard theme within the coming yr,” mentioned Lawrence Purkiss, Senior Analyst at Prohibition Companions.
Supply: Statistics Canada, Prohibition Companions 2025
Khourdaji recognized Thailand as a brand new power coming into the worldwide medical hashish provide chain in 2026.
“The nation advantages from ample sources, a super local weather for cultivation, and low working prices,” he mentioned. “The market can be witnessing a lot of cultivators producing for medical exports. Collectively, these elements place Thailand as a possible main participant within the international hashish market.”
The way forward for flower
Ben Stevens, Editor of Enterprise of Hashish, notes that whereas uncooked flower stays king, 2026 may see its dominance start to wane.
“As we proceed to see a tightening of restrictions on medical hashish frameworks all through Europe, a number of the unfavourable consideration is now being positioned on flower as a class,” he mentioned.
“Within the UK, merchandise transplanted immediately from the North American adult-use markets into the non-public medical market are already drawing concern from regulators over their names and branding. Equally, in Germany, Drug Commissioner Hendrik Streek not too long ago instructed that banning flowers may very well be a route the federal government thought-about in its medical hashish pushback. In the meantime, rising markets like France and Spain are launching with out flower supplied in any respect.”
Stevens suggests these dynamics will drive better curiosity in different product codecs. Purkiss delves additional, suggesting France’s non-flower, pharmaceutically-focused plans may act as a brand new template for future reform.
“The launch of France’s new medical hashish manufacturing and therapy construction has the potential to offer another template for international locations seeking to set up medical hashish frameworks inside their healthcare techniques,” he mentioned.
“The French mannequin is extra built-in into the prevailing pharmaceutical manufacturing and scientific therapy panorama within the nation than is the case in different massive affected person markets. It stays to be seen how rapidly home manufacturing partnerships can create merchandise that are acceptable for sufferers, docs and regulators.”
Intoxicating hemp’s unsure future
Within the US, the intoxicating hemp market dominated the headlines in 2025, and introduced a significant risk to established medical and leisure companies, involved that these low cost and largely unregulated merchandise would cannibalise their market dominance.
With a brand new federal ban handed on the finish of the yr, Stevens believes intoxicating hemp will proceed to be a key coverage matter within the coming months.
“Whereas it’s not possible to foretell what is going to occur within the sector, an space I’m positive will proceed to drive headlines is intoxicating hemp,” he mentioned.
“The US ban, not set to return into power till late 2026, may but be amended. In idea, this $30bn gray market would merely disappear in a single day. In actuality, hundreds of producers, importers, traders and customers will now be on the lookout for a brand new residence.”
“Given the relative ease with which these semi-synthetic cannabinoids will be created, the rising variety of Delta-9 THC alternate options, and the gradual tempo of efficient rules, I consider the genie is out of the bottle.”
UK: Regular development, persistent gaps
Sarah Sinclair, Editor of Hashish Well being, expects continued however measured growth within the UK market.
“Affected person numbers will proceed to develop steadily within the UK, and we’ll see extra clinicians expressing curiosity in medical hashish, however prescriber numbers will stay low in comparison with demand,” Sinclair mentioned.
As with Germany and Australia, she expects some incoming regulatory pushback, although identical to the UK’s comparative development, extra muted.
“Whereas we await the findings of the ACMD evaluation, I feel we’ll see elevated engagement from UK regulators such because the CQC and the Common Pharmaceutical Council with the sector, because it faces better scrutiny in step with rising affected person numbers.”
Sinclair additionally highlighted rising authorized challenges round affected person entry. “As entry expands, authorized instances associated to drug-driving offences and employment tribunals will even change into extra prevalent, and it’ll change into tougher for policymakers to disregard main gaps associated to CBPMs, notably in relation to driving and office drug-testing. How employers ought to handle this, and tips on how to precisely measure impairment, will change into an more and more necessary a part of the dialog, with some skilled our bodies within the occupational well being area, for instance, presently reported to be reviewing their pointers.”
On product improvement, Sinclair added: “I hope to see extra R&D targeted on ladies and girls’s health-related situations, with extra supply codecs developed that meet their wants and preferences. Nevertheless, I don’t see something main altering when it comes to the rising demand for high-potency flower till extra product codecs change into extensively obtainable.”
Advertising’s medical flip
The sector’s positioning and communications methods are set to proceed evolving away from life-style branding towards medical framing, in response to Michael Hoban, Head of Advertising & Communications at Prohibition Companions.
“Because the hashish business continues to mature at velocity, advertising and marketing budgets will face heightened scrutiny all through 2026,” Hoban famous.
“Maximising ROI has change into a central precedence for business leaders and entrepreneurs alike, changing the normal ‘use it or lose it’ strategy that when dominated budgeting cycles. As we speak, each pound or greenback spent should be supported by clear, measurable outcomes, making demonstrable ROI not simply fascinating—however important for strategic decision-making and accelerated development.”
He additionally expects the medical positioning to speed up in tandem. “As extra European international locations develop medical hashish programmes and affected person entry, the market will proceed to lean extra towards drugs and wellness, reasonably than life-style/leisure. Though this lean is already underway, subsequent yr there’ll be much more room for advertising and marketing to shift—from different drugs to a part of standardised healthcare, bolstered by the most recent scientific proof, affected person case research, and prescriber schooling.”
As markets mature, Hoban believes narrative will play an growing function in hashish advertising and marketing.
“Placing folks and their tales entrance and heart creates a degree of authenticity that actually resonates with audiences. By showcasing growers, sufferers, innovators, and group advocates, marketeers can spotlight the true voices shaping the business and construct deeper emotional connections with their viewers. These highly effective narratives don’t simply humanise a model—they place a model as a thought chief, elevating it far past being simply one other product on the shelf or one other ancillary service.”
Rob Dale, Digital Advertising Supervisor at Prohibition Companions, famous that search behaviour displays this medical shift.
“In 2026 Hashish advertising and marketing and content material will proceed to maneuver away from the ‘stoner’ content material additional in the direction of science-based content material,” Dale mentioned.
“Seek for informal phrases reminiscent of ‘weed’ and ‘marijuana’ lower, while ‘delta-9 THC’, ‘THCa’ and ‘CBN’ have seen large development and proceed to change into extra widespread.”
Dale additionally highlighted the impression of AI-powered search instruments on business content material technique. “AI search will destroy many manufacturers who follow the informal search engine marketing technique of dispensary close to me or just answering questions with no authority,” he mentioned.
“With the introduction of AI search ‘About half of messages (49%) are “Asking,” a rising and extremely rated class that reveals folks worth ChatGPT most as an advisor reasonably than just for process completion.’ Most individuals are utilizing this to ask questions and achieve insights which suggests search engine marketing technique shall be to create proprietary knowledge and have skilled log off.”
